Every day at responsibletravel.com, we talk to tourists and people
within the tourism industry who are passionate about travel. They
recognise the benefits that responsible tourism can bring to destinations,
in terms of employment and the preservation of cultural and natural
heritage. At the same time, however, we're all acutely aware of the
growing contribution that aviation makes to global warming.
Consequently, we face a dilemma. How can we align a desire to visit
other cultures in a thoughtful way alongside a conscience that calls
for the reduction in our everyday carbon emissions? It's this dilemma
that inspired us to start a debate around the future of tourism. If
we're serious about pursuing a sustainable future for travel, it's
essential that we have a vision to which we can aspire.
My own experiences within the industry have given me a unique insight
into the forces that drive it. This, in turn, has allowed me to formulate
a series of ideas about the changes we can expect to see taking place
over the next 20 or so years.
Travel with a purpose
The rise of the package holiday and 'bucket and spade' culture during
the past half century led us to believe that travel was about jetting
off for two weeks of sun, sand and souvenirs. And more recently, the
advent of low-cost airlines has seen tourism become, for many people,
a race to tick off trophy experiences and destinations. We collect
the passport stamps and the digital photos, and then move on to the
next 'unmissable' sight.
The rise of the package holiday and 'bucket and spade' culture during
the past half century led us to believe that travel was about jetting
off for two weeks of sun, sand and souvenirs. And more recently, the
advent of low-cost airlines has seen tourism become, for many people,
a race to tick off trophy experiences and destinations. We collect
the passport stamps and the digital photos, and then move on to the
next 'unmissable' sight.
As the cost of flying increases (whether it's due to increases in
the cost of aviation fuel, tax rises or the imposition of emissions
trading) and 'carbon guilt' sets in - meaning we no longer feel entirely
comfortable boasting about our overseas holidays - the 'why' and 'how'
of travel will surely become more important. When we travel in the
future, it will be with more of a purpose, with not only our own needs
in mind, but also those of the destination.
This new way of travelling could be described as 'deep' travel. It
will be about getting under the skin of a place. We already seek out
authenticity - real experiences rather than fake culture packaged
up for tourists - but travel in 2020 will go further. It will be about
the appreciation of local distinctiveness, the idiosyncrasies and
the detail, the things that make a place unique and special. It will
be as much about the smell of fresh spices in Kerala in India and
the colourful tailors of Hoi An in Vietnam as it is about rediscovering
the exotic and locally distinctive closer to home - be it bluebells
in an English wood or the taste of Wensleydale cheese.
Keeping it local
As the cost of flying increases, we'll see the end of the truly low-cost
airline. Consequently, the 'local' approach will become central to
travel - not only as a new mindset in the quest for local distinctiveness
but also as a factor affecting our choice in destinations. To coin
a new term, travel in 2020 will be 'geo-local'. In other words, holidaymakers
will travel much closer to home. We'll begin to travel more within
our own countries and continents, and less frequently beyond them.
A British family might head to Cornwall to stay in a locally run Cornish
cottage, shop for Cornish crafts and enjoy a cream tea. Holidaymakers
will increasingly discover that the exoticness of the unknown doesn't
have to take the form of a desert island in the middle of the Pacific.
Tourism will no longer be dominated by Westerners either. We'll see
residents of India and China becoming more mobile than ever before
from a leisure perspective. Already, hotels in India and China that
once hosted Western visitors almost exclusively are beginning to see
proportion of domestic guests rise, in some cases overtaking the number
of foreigners.
By 2020, we'll also see the majority of hotels getting their produce,
employees, materials, services and the like from sources within their
immediate vicinity. I refer to this as 'hyper-local' sourcing. We'll
see a new type of hotel - 'the ten-kilometre hotel' - for which all
food and materials will have been sourced from within a ten-kilometre
radius. In addition, these hotels will provide energy and water for
guests on a metered system, and separate charges for each will appear
on their bill. Discounts will be offered for those visitors who keep
their energy and water use below average.
Alternative transport
Driven by the increased cost of flying, travel will begin to develop
parallels with the slow-food movement. We'll gradually see an appreciation
of 'slow travel', with journeys made by train, boat and bike gaining
in popularity. People will gain a greater appreciation for the journey
itself, as opposed to the restless striving for the next destination.
This change in mindset will be coupled with improvements in other
forms of transport, making the whole experience more enjoyable. I
hope that we'll see carbon caps set for every airline and that an
investment in rail travel - and a consequent reduction in cost - will
be one of the direct beneficiaries of carbon trading. Planning rail
travel will also be easier as timetables are designed to link up fast
trains between countries and one global website is created through
which to book them all.
In the same way that travellers now choose tour companies and hotels
based on their responsible-tourism credentials, new websites will
allow you to choose flights from the lowest-carbon airline for your
particular journey. Although there is a widespread belief within the
industry that there isn't any alternative to kerosene aviation fuel,
I think we will see airlines increasingly making use of environmentally
friendly biofuels.
And we're sure to see the implementation of new ideas, such as adding
giant sails to cruise ships to reduce their enormous carbon footprint,
and the return to old ideas such as using airships for shorter journeys.
Destinations: changing climates and future planning
Climate change is already having a profound impact on tourism and
will soon start to change which destinations we feel comfortable about
visiting and when. The traditional holiday migration of Northern Europeans
to Southern Europe during July and August will be threatened by temperatures
that are too hot for many tourists.
Many destinations will also be forced to change their focus. Many
lower Alpine ski resorts are already having to either close or place
the emphasis more on summer walking holidays. Coral bleaching, coastal
erosion and a rise in sea level will threaten many traditional diving
and beach destinations. Extreme weather events are also likely to
become more frequent, reducing the tourist season in many destinations,
such as those in the Caribbean.
The consequences of global warming, including crop failures and changes
in water availability, will lead to mass migration and increased social
and political instability - threatening tourism in some of the countries
that are most dependent upon it.
Given the reality of climate change, destinations need to actively
plan ahead to ensure that they attract the right kind of visitors
to the right areas of their country in a way that maximises sustainability.
For too long, tourism ministers have single-mindedly pursued increased
tourist numbers without fully understanding either the local economic
benefits of different types of tourists or the true cost of tourism
to local cultures and the environment.
Smart destinations will no longer just pursue more tourists per se.
Instead, they will focus more on the types of tourists they need and
matching these to the most suitable areas and communities within their
country. As a result, economic benefits will be maximised, while social
and environmental costs are kept to a minimum.
We'll also see a change in the way that destinations are presented
and marketed to travellers. There will be further growth in consumer-led,
online peer-to-peer travel advice and this will spark a 'democratisation'
of travel. By this I mean that travellers and locals alike will gradually
be more empowered to speak on behalf of a diversity of new and interesting
places. Everyone will begin to have a say in the destinations of the
future, threatening the current monopoly of the 'mega-icons' and 'must-see'
sights, whether it be the Inca Trail, Kilimanjaro or the Taj Mahal.
The repercussions on destinations will be vast. Negative impacts such
as overcrowding will be reduced and the benefits of tourism spread
more broadly.
Holiday labelling
Over the past few decades, we've seen the food industry introduce
an array of labels: fair trade, organic, locally produced and increasingly,
'carbon ratings'. I think we'll eventually see a similar scheme being
applied to holidays, although I don't think that the labelling will
be limited to the carbon content. Although it would be fiendishly
difficult to implement, a truly holistic approach to responsible tourism
would include a rating for the holiday's impact on local communities
and cultures, as well as on the local environment.
In search of Utopia
I'm optimistic that in the future, travel and tourism will be both
sustainable and responsible, with a focus on preserving identities
and cultures, celebrating the unique and conserving what is locally
distinctive about a place. We'll fly less and, in turn, we'll fall
back in love with travel closer to home.
I think we will begin to have a more personal, meaningful relationship
with the places that we visit and a better understanding of our individual
motivations for travelling. When we contact a travel agent, they'll
be asking us, 'What do you need from a holiday?' rather than, 'Where
do you want to go?'
This vision, explored above and within this special edition of Geographical,
is just that - a utopian vision, a collection of ideas on which a
sustainable future might be built. We hope it will spark other ideas:
creative, innovative and inspiring ambitions. Above all, I hope it
creates debate. After all, if we can't begin to work towards a more
responsible future for travel, there may well not be a travel industry
at all.
Bookmark or Share
Driven by the increased cost of flying, travel will begin to develop
parallels with the slow-food movement. We'll gradually see an appreciation
of 'slow travel', with journeys made by train, boat and bike gaining
in popularity. People will gain a greater appreciation for the journey
itself, as opposed to the restless striving for the next destination.
I'm optimistic that in the future, travel and tourism will be both
sustainable and responsible, with a focus on preserving identities
and cultures, celebrating the unique and conserving what is locally
distinctive about a place. We'll fly less and, in turn, we'll fall
back in love with travel closer to home.
